The only element of the Presidential election process that does seem to show a strong historical trend is performance within the 4-year election cycle itself.

In the past, markets tend to perform the worst during the first year of an administration and best during the third year of the President’s term.¹ Why? Some feel that the push for re-election in year three is the reason for the increase. Regardless of party affiliation, the desire of the sitting president to show a direct economic effect of their administration’s policies have resulted in increased market performance. This year, there is not an incumbent candidate vying for reelection. Historical statistics may or may not hold true.

¹CNNMoney