In November, we’ll be electing a new President of the United States. It’s been an interesting primary season to say the least, with many speculations about how the election may or may not affect the economy and the state of the market in 2017. So what is the general consensus from experts around the world? Most believe that it won’t have a real effect at all. At least not directly. Investment success depends more on the strength of the U.S. economy than on which party occupies the White House.
Once the President-elect takes office however, there are some statistics related to the overall Presidential 4-year cycle. In the past, markets tend to perform the worst during the first year of an administration and best during the third year of the President’s term.1 The cyclical nature of the stock market tends to ride the tide of new policies and initiatives. The state of the world outside of Washington continues to churn through economic cycles as it always has as well.
We’ll be posting a 4 part series about these thoughts and trends throughout the month of September. And as we step closer to Election Day, we’ll have our sights set on the world as a whole in addition to the poll booth. Presidential campaigns tend to draw the public’s attention to negative news stories, which can be a distraction for investors. But in election years and non-election years alike, those who tune out the noise and focus on long-term goals may ultimately reap the rewards in the long run.